Investment Note

Market Insights 2008

Investment Review of 2008 and Outlook for 2009

You’re Next Move Could be the most Important One You Make All Year! We believe that 2009 will offer many unique investments opportunities and, with a patient approach, has the potential to be a rewarding year for investors. Asset prices across the board are severely depressed, driven down by the wave of negative economic and corporate news that swept the financial markets last year.

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Crude Oil

It would have been hard to imagine four months ago, that the price of crude oil, then near $150 a barrel, would plummet over 70% to its current level.

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Will the US Dollar Come to the Rescue?

The recent rally in the US Dollar against other major currencies shows it may have been knocked down, but certainly not knocked out.  Below we discuss why the Dollar is due renaissance, and why this may actually come to the aid of faltering global economy.

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Gold, The Ultimate Insurance Policy?

The global economy continues to slow and markets are dropping under the increasing weight of soaring inflation and a credit contraction. We're facing an outright bear market in financial assets so where should we as cautious investors be looking?

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No Relief for the UK Housing Market

What will be the result for the broader economy? Many have predicted a crash in the UK housing market, a view that is of no surprise given the meteoric prices rises of the last ten years.  However the market has shown remarkable resilience especially in the face of recent crisis in the mortgage market.  House prices in the UK are, on average, 1.3% higher than at the beginning of the year according to property website

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Who is afraid of a Bear Market?

Having recovered from the credit-crisis induced falls at start of the year, global equity markets have once again succumb to selling pressure as investor’s fret over the declining economic growth and soaring inflation.    Economic growth in the UK, as measured by real GDP slowed to a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter of 2008 against 3.1% and 2.5% annual rates in the first and second half of last year respectively.

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Is the US in a recession? George Bush does not think so.

Earlier this month the President of United States, George Bush, declared that the US was not in a recession but simply a slowdown; shortly after past-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted there was a 50% chance of US recession, and just this week the sage of Omaha, Warren Buffet declared that the US was already in a recession.  Below we ponder who is right and does it actually matter.

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UK Inflation

Q: Why did the Bank of England Keep Interest Rates Unchanged?

A:  Because they knew inflation was back!

Even through the answer was pretty clear many where left scratching their heads as to why the Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged at 5.0% following their last meeting.  Firstly US rates have been cut several times this year to ward off the possibility of economic recession, yet UK rates remain high in contrast.  Secondly the UK housing market is still in decline.

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Bear Stearns

FOR SALE:  5th Largest US Investment Bank, priced to sell.
Do the Weekends events mark the beginning of the end of the credit crisis or merely the beginning?

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Catch a Falling Knife

Markets Never Move in a Straight Line.

How are we positioned during this environment of extreme volatility?

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The Rise of the Euro

The Euro trading at all-time highs against the Dollar and ten-year highs against Sterling

Will this trend continue?

1 Euro = 1.49 Dollars or 0.75 Pounds

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