December 2018
The Stag and his Reflection
I was sat with my godson at the weekend choosing a bed time story. To my surprise I was handed a copy of that well known and staunch guide to childhood morality – Aesop’s Fables. I picked one which I had not read before titled, “The Stag and his Reflection”. The abridged version goes like this
Read the Full Note
November 2018
Is it crunch time for Trump?
After the volatility we saw in October investors would be forgiven for thinking markets were long overdue a respite from the assault of disruptive headlines. Indeed, Trump seemed to give us just that when he announced a new desire to strike a trade deal with China last week...
Read the Full Note
October 2018
Is it time to run for the hills or stand your ground?
Earlier this month in a note to clients, TAM's CEO alluded to the return of volatility and extolled the virtues of owning a defensive investment strategy in these uncertain times. Well, since then markets have been unable to shrug off a sense of gloom, forcing capital markets deeper into negative territory to the point that we want to revisit the topic of volatility...
Read the Full Note
October 2018
Message from the CEO
Has the bear returned or is this merely a tremor? Message from the CEOMarkets have taken an unfamiliar tumble based on news that is not really any different than that pervading over the past 3-4 months. So why now, and how serious is it?
Read the Full Note
August 2018
A message to UK clients from the CEO
Looking at how far we have come since 2008 and the financial crisis, is nothing short of jaw dropping. Despite this being touted as the most “hated bull market in history”, the gains in core markets have been extraordinary since the crisis lows of 2008/2009
Read the Full Note
August 2018
Five Save Global Markets
Few investors amongst us won’t have heard of the exploits of The Famous Five, a group of four school friends and their faithful dog Timmy. This iconic group of lifelong friends, whilst on summer holidays in the English countryside would embark on a series of adventures which either resulted in the uncovering of buried treasure or the foiling of whatever criminal exploits were taking place around them...
Read the Full Note
June 2018
Shout loudly and wave a big stick
President Theodore Roosevelt once said, in relation to US foreign diplomacy, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” It seems President Trump has re-tasked that phrase to read, “Shout loudly (over Twitter) and wave a big stick as often as possible.”
Read the Full Note
June 2018
“That’s another fine mess you've gotten me into!”
In the wake of the last Italian election, we released an article highlighting the volatile nature of Italian politics. Since then, and true to form, Italy has managed to deliver another bout of political chaos which now marks the longest period of uncertainty for Italian politics since WW2...
Read the Full Note
April 2018
Trade Wars: The Empire Strikes Back
When US President Donald Trump came to power last year, he brought with him an ambitious list of goals, including; building a wall between the US and Mexico, preventing some ethnic groups from entering the US, reforming corporate tax, withdrawing the US from climate pacts and addressing the trade deficit with China...
Read the Full Note
March 2018
Germany 1 - 0 Italy
Much has been made in sporting history about German-Italian football rivalry. The two most successful football nations in Europe have made a collective fourteen appearances in FIFA Wold Cup finals, which is more than the rest of Europe combined...
Read the Full Note
February 2018
A return to normality: Sorting the wheat from the chaff
For the past nine years we have been in the grips of a steady, if not rampant, Bull market in financial products. The financial disaster of 2008 seems long gone...and it is. For almost six years now, it has also been a story of almost unquenched, steady growth in financial assets and benign volatility...
Read the Full Note
February 2018
Is there life in the old frog yet?
Well, we know predicting recessions is not an easy game. Indeed, one of the IMF’s chief macroeconomists, Prakash Loungani, recently observed that, over history, economists had consistently failed to predict 148 of the last 150 global recessions...
Read the Full Note
January 2018
The figures never lie, do they?
With this bull market now approaching its 10th year of straight gains, one cannot deny it’s been a great ride for investors and fund managers. Investment return over the timescale has been slow but sure and remarkably consistent. The champagne industry may attest to how steady things have been. However, has the market become complacent when it comes to evaluating risk?
Read the Full Note
January 2018
US equity market: Is this what they call an “up crash”?
With the global bull market in equities entering its 10th year, we have, since the financial meltdown of 2008, lived through an era of long term positive investment return. No matter what has been thrown at these markets over that time, they have (almost) serenely sailed on to new highs. Volatility has collapsed and investment return remarkably consistent for managed style portfolios. Great for clients and for all of us in the financial services industry if we simply stayed on piste...
Read the Full Note