James Penny, 08 April 2025
Quarterly Market Update Q2 2025
Q1 2025 was marked by a sharp rise in volatility (+50%), driven by geopolitical tensions, erratic U.S. trade policies, and sector rotations, especially out of U.S. tech. The “Magnificent 7” tech giants dragged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into negative territory, despite relative strength in other U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, Europe, the UK, and China outperformed, with European defence spending and Chinese tech growth attracting capital. This shift highlights a major rotation away from U.S. dominance and underlines the importance of global diversification to which active managers have been advocating. TAM’s entire portfolio range benefited from broad global exposure and reduced...
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Francis Banzon-Kamara | 04 April 2025
Enhanced Passive investing - Avoiding the panic
Markets are in a risk-off mood again, with tariffs back in focus and recession fears gaining traction. While the headlines have been noisy, the playbook for Enhanced Passive remains steady: stay disciplined, stay diversified, and stay ahead. On April 2nd, President Donald Trump announced a tariff wrecking ball, dubbed as "Liberation Day." The move was aimed to reset global trade terms, however the “America First” trade is roiling global markets with stocks acutely exposed to the US economy falling alongside the dollar. Additionally, typical havens where markets seek refuge also became scarce following the announcement. The new proposal includes a...
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James Penny | 03 April 2025
Tariffs, to escalate or de-escalate, that is the question
With some of the dust having settled from yesterday’s reciprocal tariff announcement, coined ‘Liberation Day’, we can begin to put together some of our thoughts. It will come as no surprise to readers, a lot depends on what happens next. President Trump unveiled a sweeping series of tariff measures that mark a significant escalation in United States trade policy. A blanket 10% tariff on all imports of foreign goods was introduced, as anticipated from 5 April 2025. In addition, starting on 9 April, considerably steeper ‘reciprocal tariffs’ were imposed on countries with allegedly significant trade barriers against American goods. For...
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James Penny | 12 March 2025
No Pain, No Gain
As the annual TAM Charity Cycle approaches, I am reminded every time I get on my bike of that age old saying, “no pain, no gain”. In the world of physical fitness this means to be fitter, one has to push the body outside of its comfort zone to see fitness levels rising. I think most would agree markets right now are firmly outside of their comfort zone with the global market down 5.54% in 2025. More recently, President Trump has switched his narrative on the US economy to a “no pain, no gain” footing and it’s proving a bitter...
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James Penny | 24 February 2025
Taking the temperature of 2025
It’s rare to review markets so soon after the start of a year but its shaping up, just like we thought, to be a very different year from 2024. The eerie spike in aviation crashes, bizarre weather patterns, right wing politics, Trump trying to buy Greenland, The new “gulf of America”, the Ukrainian PM being labelled a dictator all the way to “smell-o-vision” goggles and taste enhancing spoons! People are rightfully starting to ask the question, are we in fact “living in a simulation?” …. Perhaps! Well, the stock market isn’t living in a simulation thankfully. Markets keep marching higher,...
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James Penny, 18 February 2025
In a partisan world, European peace unites us all
In the aftermath of a weekend filled with political rhetoric about war, peace, spending and thinly veiled political insults, as always, it’s worth putting some of our reactions down on paper. First and foremost as investors, the market open on Monday didn’t seem too worried about Trumps salvo against European governments lacklustre defence spending nor VP Vance’s scolding speech about the “threat from within” which was a thinly veiled criticism of the European political elite ignoring the values of their people (as the US perceived it) and reciprocity for Europe taking advantage of the US on defence and exports. In...
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Daniel Babington 06 February 2025
The Toll of Tariffs
The last thirty years of global trade has resembled a runaway train, roaring across borders at breakneck speed, picking up almost all passengers along the way. They have in turn shared in the spoils globalisation can offer. However, we forget this is a fairly recent phenomenon with many of America’s historical policies actually favouring protectionism. Donald Trump claims that it was in fact tariffs that ‘made America rich’ and campaigned as a harbinger for their return. That return is now here. On Saturday, President Trump slapped tariffs on Canada (25% on all exports except 10% on oil), Mexico (25%) and...
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James Penny, 03 February 2025
Insurance: Better to buy ten years too early than one minute too late
As stock markets move off a very successful 2024, it is fair to say everyone is daring to hope 2025 will be another great year. Whilst we share that sentiment and are invested to captalise on another positive year, history reminds us that it pays to be cautious when sentiment is riding high. Given that, the core tenet of this note is something simple - insurance. You wouldn’t countenance the idea of driving a car without insurance, mainly because it’s illegal. Why? Perhaps because at its core, events which we need insurance to cover can be destructive enough that, without...
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James Penny, 13 January 2025
Quarterly Market Update Q1 2025
Q4 of 2024 marked a strong finish to a positive year for investors, particularly those invested in U.S. stocks, which continued to drive portfolio performance. Several significant events influenced the market, making it somewhat of a standout in terms of geopolitical developments for 2024. President Trump’s landslide election victory, continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve against resurgent inflation, geopolitical instability with two military conflicts, and Labour's first budget. Overall, we at TAM were pleased with the performance of markets in 2024 and importantly our ability to capture this performance for our clients' portfolios. We, like many others, chose...
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Francis Banzon, 06 January 2025
Sharia Market Update Q1 2025
In 2024, markets were defined by a potent mix of bullish momentum in equity markets, delicate central bank manoeuvres, geopolitical tensions, and a U.S. presidential election that rekindled debates on trade and regulatory policies. This confluence of factors underscored the resilience of global markets while exposing vulnerabilities particularly in regions outside the U.S. Equity markets kept alive by the U.S. Once again, U.S. equity markets had a stellar performance, buoyed by the unrelenting dominance of the so-called “Mag-7” stocks as artificial intelligence (AI) continued to dominate market narratives. A theme we have kept exposure to within our Sharia portfolios, helping...
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